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CHECK YOUR MATH
ATLANTA - A mistaken mathematical analysis of genetic
individuality made 32 years ago caused large ripple effects in
the world of genetic research that are only now being corrected.
The corrected analysis has profound implications for genetic
interpretations of race and individuality, according to reports
at the annual meeting of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science.
In the Dec. 13, 1963 issue of science Dr. Jerry Hirsch, now
professor emeritus of psychology and of ecology, ethology and
evolution at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
presented mathematical data which led him to conclude that there
were unlimited numbers of genotypes, i.e., that there was
absolute uniqueness in a population.
"I had the arithmetic right. However, the interpretation was
not. If you use a simple classic diagram, you can see things you
never thought of. Using a graph on the same data today reveals
the misinterpretation with embarrassing immediacy," noted Hirsch
in an interview.
Dr. Hirsch has studied the genetics of the Drosophila fly
for more than 40 years. In his 1963 article he concluded that
genotypes do not repeat themselves. His conclusion was based on
the number of cells in a matrix rather than the number of
genotypes. Because the math was right at the time, it is likely
that the error was overlooked by many researchers who relied on
his data for their own studies, Hirsch said.
Based on the original incorrect interpretation, the
probability of a second-born child in family having the same
genotype of the first-born was 1 in 70 trillion. A modern
revision based on a diagram of the same data would correct for
cells in a matrix, replacing them with possible genotypes, and
raise the possibility of repetition, he said.
Parts or all of the chromosomes of a genotype can be
inherited. What the corrected analysis means in terms of genetic
research today is that both uniqueness and repeatability exist -
even partial - in any population, Hirsch said, adding:
"This changes our picture of the population. It changes our
expectations -- our predictions."
For example, when a person traveling far from home is
reminded of a friend's familiar face on a complete stranger,
that stranger may indeed have some of the genetic makeup of the
friend back home. Instead of all the chromosomes of the two
individuals being the same, several could be the same, Dr. Hirsch
said, "You may actually see familiar pieces [of a genotype] in
the stranger."
Speaking at a news conference, Dr. Hirsch took the
opportunity to renew his long-standing objection to the genetic
conclusions made by Richard J. Herrnstein, a co-author of "The
Bell Curve." Dr. Hirsch disputes Herrnstein's interpretation of
research conducted by Arthur R. Jensen, a researcher at the
University of California at Berkeley. Jensen had advocated the
use of IQ tests in measuring intelligence. Dr. Hirsch also
criticized the methodology and accuracy of Herrnstein's
research.
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